MEXICO NOT ANOTHER COLOMBIA: NEWS ANALYSIS

by Ana Vinas, Staff Writer-Translator

Note: The following is a summary of a news analysis published in the Diario de Juárez newspaper. It does not represent the opinions of Frontera NorteSur. Rather, it provides another viewpoint on the debate over the Mexican government's effectiveness in the fight against drugs.

With a significant amount of cocaine trafficking moving from Colombian dealers to Mexican dealers, political figures in both Mexico City and Washington, D.C. are showing great concern for what some consider the "Colombianization of Mexico."

In the last few decades, the cocaine trade (and U.S. efforts to fight it) has resulted in violence, corruption and social chaos in Colombia. Even though the main organizations have been dismanteled in recent years, Colombia is still a strong source of cocaine. The country is still facing social disorder due to the extremely violent era in narcotrafficking.

Many analysts think the political and social differences between Colombia and Mexico will make it harder to generate this kind of situation in Mexico. Mexico, after all, shares a 3,200 Km. border with the U.S. The U.S. will do whatever is necessary to stop Mexico from turning into another Colombia. The U.S. and Mexican governments have already made several agreements this year. The extradition to the U.S. of suspicious Mexican residents/citizens is still being discussed.

Drug trafficking is not anything new to Mexico, which for many years has provided the U.S. with a drug market, mostly marijuana and cocaine. For about the last decade, Mexico has been the exchange area of about 70% of cocaine coming into the U.S. But the destruction of many Colombian organizations in the last five years has allowed Mexican dealers to gain influence on the industry. More cocaine money is now in Mexican hands, creating potential for more corruption and violence, according to analysts.

Murders, kidnappings, theft, and assault are now more frequent in both urban and rural areas throughout Mexico. Gang related violence is becoming more common at drug dealing centers along the Mexico-U.S. border. Drug corruption has already reached the highest branches in the Mexican government, and law enforcement officers have become gangs' favorite target for revenge.

The comparisons between Mexico and Colombia are obvious. Both countries are going through development, which includes having an extensive poor population and a big gap between the rich and the poor. Both have defective judicial systems which do not offer enough justice for its citizens. Both have police and military units accused of human rights abuse. In both countries, the threat of terrorist kidnapping scares even the simple population. Common citizens choose to beat up assumed criminals. In both countries newspaper reporters are killed for the information they publish.

However, according to a U.S. source, "Other than the fact that both countries are Spanish speaking countries, the similarities are over." He added, "The main thing is that Colombia has a large amount of violence, and Mexico has corruption."

After the dismanteling of the main drug dealing organizations in Colombia, which ended with the death of Medellín Cártel leader Pablo Escobar in 1993, and the arrest of main dealers in Cali two years ago, Mexican dealers emerged among the most powerful in the business. In recent years, Mexican dealers have dictated the terms with their Colombian providers and have taken over distribution in many U.S. regions.

Colombian organizations still deal cocaine in great volumes, but the decrease in Medellín and Cali is noticeable, according to authorities. Even though the violence has decreased in the last few years, it is still alarming, especially in the drug center areas.

The homicide rate in Medellín city, with 1.8 million people, is 200 per 100,000 residents, according to Colombian government. In contrast, the number of homicides in Houston, the fourth biggest city in the U.S. with 1.6 million residents, was 14.7 per 100,000 residents in 1996, according to FBI.

Analysts talk about the differences and similarities between Mexico and Colombia to justify their opinion on why they do not believe the situation in Mexico would never reach the level of violence Colombia has. To begin, as bad as the situation might look in Mexico, the truth is that they cannot compare to Colombia. The South American nation is still dealing with a civil war which has been going on for decades--both the left wing gerrillas and the right wing militia get part of their funding from drug dealers. The Mexican left wing gerrillas are so small they are hardly noticeable. Then, say the analysts, it is not probable that Mexico's government will ever suppress its drug dealing organizations with enough strength to generate a violent retaliation such as occurred in Colombia.

"The political classes in Mexico have not been corrupted by drugs, they have always been a part of the game," said a Mexican worker at the narcotics unit. "There will not be a repression in Mexico," said the worker, who has also worked in Colombia.

There are also few possibilities for the U.S. to pressure Mexico into applying more strict measurements, said the analysts. The corruption in Mexico has grown such roots that trying to eliminate it might cause political imbalance that could have effects in Washington. In reality, the drug issue is secondary to Mexico and U.S. relations, which is more dominated by immigration and commerce issues.

U.S. polititians have known that Colombia's government is responsible for such a strong cocaine industry, but they are willing to make an exception when it comes to Mexico. This double standard is evident every year when at the White House it is certified before Congress to see if other countries are cooperating with the U.S. in their fight against drugs.

Colombia has been de-certified in the last two years based on official corruption, even though the drug dealers' organizations were dismanteled and cocaine labs and fields destroyed. Mexico was certified as a country which "collaborated completely" last March, even though Mexico drug policy chief Gen. Jesus Gutierrez Rebollo had recently been arrested for corruption related to drugs.

The number of viloent cases has increased at an alarming rate in Mexico. Gang wars erupted in Ciudad Juárez in August, after Amado Carrillo's death. Carrillo, who was considered the most powerful drug dealer in Mexico.

In a particularly alarming incident four Juárez doctors were beaten, strangled and stacked on display in a vacant lot. Other murders have occurred in Tijuana, Guadalajara and throughout Sinaloa, perhaps the top drug producing state, during a time in which drug dealers and their protectors were adapting to an industry in which Carrillo no longer dominated.

Analysts point out that the way Mexico has been controlled by the PRI party for the last 68 years has made it easy to allow corruption and drug trafficking at all government levels. The leading party lost the Congress power last July. The opposition parties now control most big cities and the key drug producing/distributing states. They also added that in Colombia's 40 years of experience with democratic government and free elections have had a minimal impact on the dealing of drugs or the civil war. The "guerrillas" have made it harder to have political meetings because they kidnap or kill the candidates, and force others to retire from the campaigns.

A more democratic government in Mexico could, with time, eliminate the PRI's dominance over power, and fight corruption within the legal system.

Source: Diario de Juárez