Frontera NorteSur July 2000

I. Mexico Border States Unanimously Support Fox

II.  What's Next For Fox On The Frontera: Immigration and Drug Certification

III.   While Ciudad Juárez PRI Supporters Mourn Their Defeat, Chihuahua Governor Says The PRI Is Dead

The six, northern Mexico border states overwhelmingly voted for Vicente Fox Quesada's ascension to the presidency in a strong call for change.  Fox's Alliance for Change (APC), composed of his party, the PAN, and the Mexican Green Ecological Party (PVEM), took easy victories in all six border states: Baja California, Coahuila, Chihuahua, Nuevo León, Sonora and Tamaulipas. Fox won 6 of 6 voting districts in Baja California, 6 of 7 districts in Coahuila, 7 of 9 in Chihuahua, 8 of 11 in Nuevo León, 6 of 7 in Sonora and 5 of 8 in Tamaulipas. While pre-vote polling had showed a statistically even race that was too close to call before July 2, Fox nationally took 42.5% of the vote to the PRI's Francisco Labastida's 36%.

Although the pre-election polling showed that the race was too close to call, with many people stating that the PRI machine would somehow pull out a narrow, disputed victory, journalists and political scientists all explained Fox's victory the same way:  Mexico wanted its first democratic change of government after more than 70 years of PRI rule.  As Ciudad Juárez's El Diario's July 4, front-page editorial stated, "The desire for change and the necessity of exploring alternative formulas to those that have been present for the past 71 years were the central motives of an electorate tired of politics as usual.  The electorate was  resolved to construct a new notion of the country's future."

While Mexican voters do not usually vote a split ticket this phenomena did occur in the border states in the elections for federal deputies and senators. This perhaps can be attributed to the more personal relationship that the people in the districts have with their legislators. In Coahuila, APC deputy candidates won 4 of 7 districts versus 6 of 7 in presidential voting. In Chihuahua it was 6 of 9 districts versus 7 of 9 in presidential voting. Sonora's APC took 5 of 7 districts in voting for deputies versus 6 of 7 in presidential voting. In Tamaulipas, the APC took just 3 of 8 districts in voting for deputies versus 5 of 8 in presidential voting. In the states of Baja California and Nuevo León, Fox's APC won the same number of districts in the federal deputy elections as it did in the presidential elections.

These results were echoed in the votes for senators with the APC again not winning as many voting districts for senators as it did for its presidential candidate Vicente Fox. In Coahuila, APC senate candidates won 4 of 7 districts versus 6 of 7 in presidential voting. In Chihuahua it was again 6 of 9 districts versus 7 of 9 in presidential voting. In Sonora, the APC took 4 of 7 districts in the senatorial voting versus 6 of 7 in presidential voting and 5 of 7 in deputy voting. In Tamaulipas, the APC won 4 of 8 districts in senatorial voting versus 5 of 8 in presidential voting and 3 of 8 in voting for deputies. Baja California's and Nuevo León's districts voted the same way for senators as they did for presidential candidates.

Mexico directly votes into office federal deputies and senators as is done in the US but also sends people to these two houses based on proportional representation. This is done to give non-ruling parties and smaller parties a voice in government. In this manner, some senators and deputies are sent to congress by smaller parties that won no districts outright. While the PRI retained the majority of seats among deputies it did not win an absolute majority. This gives Mexico's third largest party, the left of center PRD, substantial power in that if Fox wants to put through legislation or reforms he will need to reach compromises with the PRD. This should give the PRD the ability to complete some of its own agenda or frustrate Fox's anticipated reforms and changes.

In terms of the results of state voting for deputies by proportional representation, the APC won Baja California, Chihuahua, Nuevo León and Sonora, or 4 of 6 of the border states. The PRI won two of the border states: Coahuila and Tamaulipas. It should be noted that the Coahuila results were probably the closest of the entire election with the PRI winning by just 118 votes (352,285 to 352,167). Of the 31 states plus Mexico City (together these are referred to as federal entities), Fox's APC won 14, the PRI 16 and the AM (Alianza Por México of which the PRD is part) 2 federal entities. An examination of these results show that the northern border states played a significant role in the APC's victory as they consistently favored Fox and his party. The APC won 4 of 6 states on the border, or two thirds of the border states, but only won ten of the other 26 federal voting entities. It is of course necessary to remember that in terms of congressional offices awarded by proportional representation, parties still get seats in the congress without winning outright a state or district.

Some deputies are also sent to congress by proportional representation from five large zones that cover all of Mexico. The APC received the most votes in three of these regions with their centers in Jalisco, Nuevo León and Mexico City. The PRI won the most votes in the two other areas: Veracruz and the states surrounding Mexico City. The AM received many votes in all of these areas and will send representatives to Mexico City as a result of these seats garnered through proportional representation.

The state and Mexico City results in the senate races for direct election and proportional representation were similar to those of the results for federal deputies. The APC took 5 of the 6 border states in direct elections for the senate with the PRI winning only Tamaulipas. The APC won 14 of the 32 federal voting entities, the PRI 16 and the AM 2. The results were the same for proportional representation.

The official raw vote count from which these results are abstracted are available at the Instituto Federal Electoral (IFE) web site, www.ife.org.mx. This is the part of the Mexican government responsible for the establishment of fair elections and vote counting in Mexico.

Chihuahua and Ciudad Juárez Voting:

Looking at Chihuahua and Ciudad Juárez more specifically, we see that Fox's APC won all three Cd. Juárez districts and both the Chihuahua (City) districts. It won two other districts and the PRI won two southern, more-rural districts in the state. In general this trend took place in all the border states with the APC winning urban districts and the PRI having its best luck in the more rural districts. Nationwide the APC also did better in the more heavily industrialized states.

Reaction to the APC victory was intense in Cd. Juárez and on Saturday evening, July 2, the day of the vote, numerous celebrations of the Fox victory took place throughout the city.  At the PAN building located at the intersection of avenues 16 de Septiembre and Cinco de Mayo, Mayor Gustavo Elizondo Aguilar took the PAN candidates by hand and presented them to the crowd which responded with loud ovations.  The crowds responded in kind when the candidates and mayor made the "V" sign for victory with their raised arms.  When Elizondo began to yell, "México triumphs! Viva México! Viva Vicente Fox!," the crowd again replied with enthusiasm. The celebration there lasted well into the night.

On La Avenida Paseo Triunfo de la República, one of Cd. Juárez's main thoroughfares, where the PRI had hoped to have its own victory celebration, violence broke out between PAN and PRI supporters.  At first, the two sides exchanged insults but later people began to throw full soda cans at their opposites while some of the crowed began fighting.  At the height of the eruption, a few PAN supporters driving through the area directed their automobiles at the gathered PRI backers who responded by kicking at the cars.  City police never intervened in the disturbance despite having been alerted to the situation by traffic officers in the area.  The situation finally calmed at 10 pm when the avenue was closed to vehicles.  At the same time, the gathered PRI leaders began asking their supporters to act peacefully and then President Ernesto Zedillo made his now-historic call to PAN candidate Vicente Fox Quesada to tell him that he would be the next president of México. 

Sources: El Norte, El Diario and the IFE.

II.  What's Next For Fox On The Frontera: Immigration and Drug Certification
Greg Bloom, FNS Editor

Even before taking office, México's next president, Vicente Fox Quesada, has given early signs that he and México are to be treated with respect and that immigration and drug issues will have to be dealt with bilaterally if the US wants México's continued help in these areas. On the evening of his election the Mexican press reported that Fox  refused to take congratulatory calls from the Bush and Gore campaigns as he felt that they had met more frequently and at a higher level with the campaign of his main rival, the PRI's losing candidate, Francisco Labastida. However, Fox did immediately accept a call from US President Bill Clinton and discussions are now under way for the two of them to meet before Clinton leaves office and Fox begins his six-year term as president of México on December 1 of this year.

In a July 10, México City interview with Sam Donaldson for the ABC program "This Week," Fox expanded upon what he had said earlier in the week about México's role in the war on drugs.  He told Donaldson the US should move past unilateral certification in the war on drugs if it wishes to be more effective and said that, "The US also has to make compromises by reducing the consumption of drugs and  by combating the millions of drug dollars that seek to corrupt Mexican officials."  Fox  imagines a multilateral, multinational accord aimed at breaking the drug trade.  Asked by Donaldson if the US was guilty of causing the drug problem because of its high demand for drugs (which some value at US$57 billion a year), Fox said he believed that everyone involved is guilty and that the consuming, producing and transporting nations will have to solve the problem together.

Fox views US immigration policy much in the same way he sees its drug policy: both chafe him as being too one-sided or imperialistic.  Fox said in a July 5 press conference that the current México and US policies regarding its shared border are wrong and that he hopes to establish a series of direct talks with the US on the issue of immigration.  At the same press conference Fox stated he had plans to go to Washington to have talks with President Clinton and that "the goal for the countries is to become true partners, true neighbors and true friends."  Fox also said he would work on eliminating the positions and tensions between the US and México which have led to violence on the border over the past few months.  In other moments Fox has commented that the true solution to lowering migrant flows is to raise the level of income in México.  He believes that once greater wage parity exists between Mexico and the US less Mexicans will wish to go north.

The Friday, July 7 Wall Street Journal noted that Fox wants 250,000 visas for the people of his country and that this is a top priority of his foreign policy.  State department spokesperson Richard Boucher said in response that 75,000 visas were given to Mexican citizens in 1999 for travel to the US.  This is beyond the 27,083 visas that the US National Immigration Law permits.  The difference between the two amounts is due to exceptions that were made to allow for visits by the children and spouses of permanent legal residents.  Boucher said that if the quota is to be raised it would take an act of Congress. Boucher also indicated that the state department agrees with Fox in that Mexican economic development is the long-term solution for immigration policy. Talk of such development has led to proposals on both sides of the border that perhaps Mexico should receive a type of Marshall plan to rapidly aid it in economic growth.

Fox's intent to decentralize the Mexican government will also have a great affect on the border states and especially the larger border cities.  Currently almost all tax money from Mexican cities goes directly to the federal government with just 3 to 4% being returned for city use.  Fox hopes to gradually increase the rate of return up to near 40%.  This will give the outlying regions greater independence from Mexico City and will weaken the federal executive branch.  It also means that large cities like Ciudad Juárez and Tijuana will gain considerable financial independence from their smaller state capitals, Chihuahua and Méxicali.

President elect Fox has also said that he will restructure the government department (secretaría de gobernación) which currently deals and negotiates with the states and controls numerous law enforcement agencies.  With its law enforcement arms severed, the government department will be on a more equal playing field with the nations' governors.  It is also thought that this structural change will end some of the internal spying which was taken place in the past.  Having been the former governor of Guanajuato, Fox himself must have known what it was like dealing with Mexico City from the state level.

Overall, the beginnings of the Fox presidency should be marked by decentralization of government, both politically and economically. More money and power will flow to the periphery of the nation. Fox also seems unwilling to continue in an unequal relationship with the US in the war on drugs. He obviously sees the failures and dangers of current immigration policies and seeks to deal with this issue in a more realistic, results-oriented approach that departs from the US political rhetoric that surrounds immigration.

Sources: El Diario and El Norte
 

III.   While Ciudad Juárez PRI Supporters Mourn Their Defeat Chihuahua Governor Patricio Martínez Says The PRI Is Dead
Greg Bloom, FNS Editor

Since the scale of the unexpected PRI defeat was made known Saturday evening July 2, just hours after the polls had closed, there has been continual discussion of the PRI's future and possible disintegration.  Chihuahua's PRI Governor Patricio Martínez joked on July 7 that the PRI's death was so sudden that he believed that the party had been euthanized although he was unsure who was responsible. Other parts of the PRI are however more certain of where to cast the blame and they hope to install 1,000 PRI voting stations around the country to determine if President Zedillo has been a traitor to his party and the nation.  Parts of the PRI are also particularly upset that Zedillo seemed to abandon PRI candidate Francisco Labastida during the campaign and that Zedillo congratulated Fox on his victory before the IFE had made its official announcement on the vote's outcome.  In comparison to much of what the PRI is venting to the press, Martínez's response to the loss was more tempered and he said that although there surely are people to blame, the party should wait for the dust to settle and then the PRI could more effectively assess what had happened and what the long-term results would be.

Other signs of the crisis within the PRI became apparent as early as July 3, just one day after the election, when its entire National Executive Committee (CEN) resigned to elect new leaders.  At that moment a power struggle began between more progressive parts of the PRI and its old-line party members, called the dinosaurs, who are associated with the party's previous system of big-government paternalism.  The dinosaurs, led by former Puebla Governor Manuel Bartlett Díaz, are trying to install Tabasco Governor Roberto Madrazo Pintado as the new head of the CEN.  Madrazo lost in the primaries to Labastida so his election would mark a return in the PRI's clientelist past.  Unlikely to be elected to the position is Jesús Murillo Karam, President Zedillo's choice for the position, an individual who because of his affiliation with Zedillo has very little support anywhere in the party. 

Luis Salazar, president of the Center for Studies for the Transition to Democracy (Centro de Estudios para la Transición Democrática), said in the July 7, El Norte, that the breakup and dispersion of the PRI is inevitable given the strong antagonism between the party's modernizing and traditional members.  He believes that many of the party's members will leave the PRI and be taken in and assimilated by the PAN or the further-to-the-left Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD).

A related problem for the PRI is that its leader has always been the president of México and now that the presidency has been lost the PRI will have to find another source of cohesion.  This could be quite difficult as the PRI lacks ideological identity as some of its members are center left, centrist and center right.  In many ways the PRI has been, as its name implies, an institution, a career path, and now it has lost its hold on elected political posts.

Cd. Juárez reaction to the PRI loss seems to echo what has been expressed by the party's leaders.  Pictures of weeping PRI supporters appeared in the July 3, Cd. Juárez newspapers showing the shock that many PRI backers felt at their party's unexpected defeat.  Areas of the city set aside for a PRI victory party were quiet and subdued until violence broke out with the arrival of PAN backers.  By Monday, many of the losing PRI candidates had begun clearing out their headquarters assisted only by their friends and most faithful volunteers.  On Tuesday, July 4, perhaps pretending for a bit longer that they were still the party they had been for the past 71 years, the PRI had yet to mobilize its cleanup crews to take down its campaign material that had been placed throughout the city.

Sources: El Norte and El Diario