By Samuel Schmidt, Associate Professor of Political Science, UTEP.
Chihuahua and Baja California were the only two Mexican states in which the PAN party won the governorship in 1993 elections. In Baja California, the PAN has maintained its popularity. But in Chihuahua the party has fallen on hard times. First, the party lost its majority in the state legislature; then it lost control of all large cities throughout the state, except for Ciudad Juarez. The elections of 1995 were viewed a disaster for Governor Francisco Barrio, and although he blamed the teacher's union that opposed him, others have pointed to his erratic administraion and his failure to make a serious effort to eliminate the centralism that is so characteristic of the PRI system. At this point the PAN is so unpopular that if elections were held today, the PAN might not win a single office. Evidence of this unpopularity is clear. In a public survey conducted by the El Norte/Reforma newspaper on August 15, 1996, 66% of the respondents replied that they thought the economic situation is "bad" or "very bad"; 85% believe inflation is too high; 41 percent are negative about public security and 39 percent believe the environment is deteriorating. While some of these factors are clearly not the responsibility of state government, the PAN in Chihuahua seems to be getting some of the blame.
The PAN has had a number of internal conflicts, especially between the rank and file and the leadership. In one of the most open conflicts the president of the municipal party committee in Cd. Juarez was overthrown when the order was given from the state capital. The event was reminiscent of the most authoritarian moments of the PRI, and it threw into doubt the sincerity of the PAN in effecting a decentralization of authority.
Other parties are having their troubles as well. The PRI, while appearing to be gaining in popularity statewide, is internally divided in Cd. Chihuahua. The recent protest of state PRI mayors against the "Lets Pull Together" program of Governor Barrio, indicates that the party may find local support for its candidate for governor next year. "Lets Pull Together", a program much like the "Solidarity" program of President Salinas (1988-1994) was developed by Barrio and has had the effect, as did "Solidarity" of mobilizing the party base. But when the mayor of Chihuahua, a Priista, supported Barrio's program, dissent within state party ranks was evident.
The Partido de la Revolucion Democratica (PRD) remains practically irrelevant as an electoral force in Chihuahua, although it has been vocal in calling for reform. In the last elections for national party president, party resources were so scarce that in Cd. Juarez balloting took place in party headquarters rather than in precincts as called for in the national accord.
The Comite of Popular Defense has moderated its message and has chosen to place its energies in the legislative arena, a move which has neutralized its effectiveness as a public voice.
The fourth national political force, the Partido del Trabajo (PT) hardly exists in the state and the Green Party was so weak in the elections for mayor of Cd. Juarez that it has virtually disappeared. Recently the party announced it would publish a newspaper, but it is unclear how often it will appear.
So far there are few solid pre-candidates for the governor's election to be contested in 1998, in contrast to the situation in most other states. Within the PAN, the Governor's intervention in local affairs has led to confrontations between the Governor's representative in Cd. Juarez and the Mayor, Ramon Galindo. Both men are openly seeking the candidacy of the PAN and reports of foul play have already surfaced as a result of the resignation of the Secretary of Municipality in Juarez, who alleged poor administration and corruption (see story "Top Municipal Official" in News Digest). The smaller parties have shown virtually no interest in the elections.
The PRI has many people from Chihuahua in important federal jobs in Mexico City, including the personal secretary to the President, the national PRI president, the Secretary of Commerce and a senator on the national executive committee of the party. The senator is openly seeking to be the PRI candidate for governor, making it certain that the elections in Chihuahua will have more national visibility than before.