TROUBLED SELECTION PROCESS FOR PRI MAYORAL NOMINATION
a summary and analysis by Jose Z. Garcia, Director, Center for Latin American Studies, NMSU

The dominant political story in Juarez in May was the flawed May 9 PRI primary race for mayor of Juárez. The episode embarrassed the PRI not only in Juárez and Chihuahua, but also nationwide and threatened to damage the chances, considered excellent until the middle of May, for a PRI victory in the gubernatorial elections in Chihuahua. Party leaders will be forced to spend a considerable amount of time and energy mending party fences rather than appealing to a broader electorate in Juárez that has shown a strong propensity in recent years to vote for PAN candidates for mayor. In addition, the extensive evidence that surfaced of inept organizational control over the process and the strong suggestion of fraudulent intent by adherents of both major candidates, harks back to the old negative image of the PRI, which did so much to energize opposition parties in recent years.

Background

The elections began auspiciously enough with the decision, made by PRI leaders in late March to hold the first primary elections for mayors throughout the state of Chihuahua. For years, PRI leadership had been accused of cynical manipulation of the old convention selection system to choose candidates (through what was called the "dedazo," or "handpicking") thought to be more loyal to the party than to the public. This time, PRI leaders appeared to be yielding to public pressure to hold a more open candidate selection process.

In an investigative report for Norte de Ciudad Juárez written by Luis Silva and Vicente Jaime the authors assert that gubernatorial candidate Patricio Martinez, who became the party candidate in clean primary elections on March 8, at first did not want to use a primary system for mayoral elections in May, fearing it would split the party, especially in faction-ridden Juárez, making it more difficult for a win in July. He changed his mind only after he had decided to support Eleno Villalva, a relatively unknown architect without strong party insider support, for mayor instead of Hector Gonzalez Mocken, former PRI leader for Juárez and national congressman, or Hector Murguia, national senator, both with strong organizational support inside the PRI hierarchy. The decision was then made to hold primary elections.

Whatever the case, the final list of PRI candidates vying for mayor in the primaries was composed of Gonzalez Mocken, Villalba, Miguel Lucero Palma, Andres Carbajal Casas, Brigido Hernandez Ojeda, and Ramon Chacon Aldrete.

In the primary campaign Gonzalez Mocken proved to be a strong competitor with an ability to raise more money than was expected. In fact, his ability to raise money led to negative rumors about where his money might be coming from. It was known that most wealthy PRIistas were supporting Eleno Villalba. Two days before the primary election Villalba challenged his opponents to reveal their sources of funding for the campaign. Gonzalez claimed to have raised about (US) $62,000 compared to about (US) $90,000 for Villalva. But in spite of the support he was receiving from Patricio Martinez and his greater campaign funds, polling indicated that Gonzalez Mocken was ahead among most PRI voters.

The May 9, 1998 PRI Primary Election for Mayor of Juárez

Evidence strongly suggests that the Juárez PRI leadership, having held a well organized, transparent primary election in March for the selection of the gubernatorial candidate, took few precautions in the May primary. While the official voting period was from 10 a.m. to 7 p.m., dozens of balloting booths had not yet been set up by noon. Workers in other booths were threatening to close down because presiding officials had not received the salaries they had been promised 100 and 50 pesos, respectively, for president and deputy. Just before 5 p.m. Juárez PRI president Sergio Vasques Olivas accused "PANistas" of subverting the campaign by telling voters and officials that balloting would cease at 5 p.m. At least two voting boxes closed before 5 p.m. for this reason. Later reporters discovered that there was little control over the security of ballot boxes in many locales, and in at least one case, eyewitnesses suggested that there were not as many people who voted as ballots cast.

As voting ended at 7 p.m. party officials began taking ballot boxes to CEDEPRI (the State Commission for the Development of the Internal Process) officials in charge of vote counting at PRI headquarters downtown. At 8:45 p.m. the Commission announced its first preliminary results, having counted 557 boxes out of about 850the exact number of boxes has not been revealed. Gonzalez Mocken was ahead with 10,308 (40.4%) votes to 8,611 (33.67%) for Eleno Villalva, accounting for about 75% of the votes cast, that is, the other four candidates were splitting the remaining 25% of the votes. At 9:49, with 657 boxes counted, a second update was released to the public, revealing that Gonzalez' margins had been cut strongly: Gonzalez Mocken: 11,900 votes to 11,487 votes for Eleno Villalva. Supporters of both candidates began to claim victory and to allege that the other camp had engaged in massive fraud.

At this point Gonzalez Mocken and his supporters appear to have asked CEDEPRI officials not to accept the arrival of new ballot boxes, since all should have been brought in and that some late boxes might have been violated. A few minutes later a group of activists tried to stop the arrival of ballot boxes to headquarters. A scuffle broke out and adherents of Gonzalez took three boxes and spilled their contents before leaving. Boxes from tables 1823 and 1747 were also destroyed. Reporters later discovered that in the latter box a 36-6 margin favored Villalva. At this point about a dozen local police arrived, but left minutes later. A young woman from a balcony of headquarters showed reporters an open box (1781) that had been left in the melee. Followers of Gonzalez apparently took over parts of the PRI headquarters, and CEDEPRI stopped counting the remaining boxes.

The next day Alberto Ramirez Gutierrez, representative of the state CEDEPRI told reporters that the violence by Gonzalez' followers might result in his suspension as a candidate, and the commission would debate whether to annul the whole process or not. On May 11 Ramirez announced that the state committee would supersede the local CEDEPRI headed by Manuel Quevedo Reyes, a former Juárez mayor. Villalva, on May 11 claimed he had video tape proof of Manuel "La Changa" Diaz, a supporter of Gonzalez, stuffing a ballot box. He also alleged he had proof that Gonzalez had paid money to some precinct chairs and cited, as proof of fraud, the case of Slavarcar neighborhood where the results showed a margin of 300-1 for Gonzalez. On May 12 a delegate of the National Executive Committee of the PRI arrived in Juárez to work with CEDEPRI to decide how to proceed. After deliberating for more than 15 hours on May 12, the committee reported it would announce the winner of the primary "in five minutes." It never did.

On May 13, Sergio Olivas, President of the PRI in Juárez announced that Eleno had won the election by a margin of three votes out of more than 33,000 votes cast, after a recount of the 84 ballot boxes that had been questioned, performed by a committee composed of national, state, and local party officials.

The Aftermath

Gonzalez Mocken has steadfastly maintained that he won the race. At one point he suggested he might join the PT (Partido de Trabajo, or Worker's Party), but backed away from that stance, although he has not agreed to support the announced winner of the primary. Villalva has noted that while the results from some boxes in his favor (on had a result of 228 votes to 2) strain credibility, he had nothing to do with the mechanics of the process and could not have intervened.

With five weeks left before gubernatorial, mayoral, and congressional elections in Juárez, it is too early to tell how much damage to the PRI may result from the primary mayoral elections. Patricio Martinez is still ahead in the polls for governor, and poll results have not yet been released for mayor. Still, damage may come from two directions. First, since Gonzalez Mocken was a classic insider within PRI circles with strong grass roots capabilities, should he and his supporters elect to stay home, it would seem difficult for Eleno to win the mayorship. This suggests the next few weeks will see a major effort develop to heal the obvious wounds of the elections. Second, the party image has been damaged once more in one place the PRI can hardly afford more damage: the conduct of elections. This latter issue operates not only in Juárez, but also statewide, and indeed, nationwide, reinforcing perhaps the most serious negative stereotype to the party's image.

Sources:El Diario, Norte de Ciudad Juárez